The early favorite is U.S. Congressman Bradley Byrne. There is an old adage that often [...]]]>

It is a foregone conclusion that a Republican will take out our anomaly liberal democratic senator, Doug Jones, next year. The question is which Republican will be the nominee and capture the seat.

The early favorite is U.S. Congressman Bradley Byrne. There is an old adage that often holds true, the early bird gets the worm.

Byrne made the commitment to run over a year ago and he has been dedicated to the race and is running full speed ahead. He is raising good money and crisscrossing the state in a very organized manner. Byrne ran a good race for governor in 2010, so he knows what he is doing. He has served coastal Alabama in the State Senate and now six years in Congress. If he is the only major candidate from the Mobile/Baldwin area in the Primary, he will get a good “Friends and Neighbors” vote in his 1st Congressional District. Republican primaries begin and end in vote rich Baldwin County now.

The toughest challenge that Byrne could get may very well be fellow congressman, Mo Brooks from Huntsville. Brooks is from the ultra-right wing of the GOP. National conservative group like and trust Brooks. He is a true believer. These folks are not excited about Byrne who they perceive as a silk stocking, country club Republican. Brooks also has a more recent statewide race under his belt than Byrne. Being a congressman gives him access to Washington and national donors and also like Byrne, Huntsville is a good place to be from in a Republican primary.

If Brooks opts not to run, the right wing groups in Washington, D.C. may pursue Birmingham Congressman Gary Palmer. Brooks and Palmer are cut from the same cloth. They are ultra true blue conservatives. Brooks is the better candidate of the two. He is more charismatic and flamboyant.

The person to watch may be Secretary of State John Merrill. If he enters, he will be a player. He is the hardest working person in Alabama politics. He is not only the best retail politician currently on the Alabama political stage, he may be one of the best in Alabama political history. His organization is like something put together in a bygone era. He will outwork everybody in the GOP Primary, as well as Jones, put together. The aforementioned probable candidates need to not underestimate the hardest working man in Alabama political show business, John Merrill.

The legendary Roy Moore may make the race. His name identification and base allows him the luxury of not having much money. He should not be underestimated or dismissed as a “has been”. However, I do think his base has diminished to about 15 percent of the primary vote, which is not enough to make the run-off unless there is a crowded field.

In fact, a large crowd of GOP candidates could be attracted to the GOP race. They may come from strange corners. Former Auburn football coach, Tommy Tuberville, who was the Tigers football coach from 1999-2008 and who has more recently been the head football coach at Ole Miss, Texas Tech and Cincinnati has officially announced that he is a candidate for the GOP nomination. He is originally from Arkansas.

This scenarios reminds me of a story our ole Senator, the late Howell Heflin, use to tell while he was our U.S. Senator for 18 years. Heflin was a true World War II military hero. He won the Bronze star as a Marine officer. Heflin hailed from Colbert County, Tuscumbia.

After undergraduate school at Birmingham Southern and Law School at the University of Alabama, he went back home to Tuscumbia and became one of the most prominent lawyer in Colbert County. At 50 he ran for and was elected Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court. After six-years there he went to the U.S. Senate for three year six-year terms.

Heflin was the son of a Methodist minister. The Methodists at that time moved ministers around. It just so happened that at the time of Howell’s birth his daddy was doing a stint at a church in Georgia. Heflin being a true Alabamian and an Alabama political leader was a little embarrassed about the place of his birth. He would often say, “Yea, well my daddy was over in Georgia doing missionary work among the heathen.”

See you next week.

Steve Flowers

Alabama’s premier columnist and political commentator, Steve has analyzed Alabama politics for national television audiences on CBS, PBS, ABC and the British Broadcasting Network. Steve has been an up close participant and observer of the Alabama political scene for more than 50 years and is generally considered the ultimate authority on Alabama politics and Alabama political history. Steve’s column appears weekly on ShoalsInsider.com.

Alabama’s leading Political Columnist Steve Flowers

The very interesting and entertaining Republican Primary for our open U.S. Senate seat culminates this Tuesday with the clash between two Titans. Judge Roy Moore and Big Luther Strange will be in a Titanic battle to fill the seat left vacant when Jeff Sessions became U.S. Attorney [...]]]>

Alabama’s leading Political Columnist Steve Flowers

The very interesting and entertaining Republican Primary for our open U.S. Senate seat culminates this Tuesday with the clash between two Titans.  Judge Roy Moore and Big Luther Strange will be in a Titanic battle to fill the seat left vacant when Jeff Sessions became U.S. Attorney General.

We will see if Moses with his Ten Commandments and Hebrew children of rural Alabama can slay the Philistine Mountain Brook giant.

The results from the August 15 first primary were predictable.  The turnout was about 18 percent, about what you would expect for a Special Election in mid-August, during 100-degree dog days of summer and one race on the ballot. Moore garnered 39 percent, Strange had 33 percent, and Mo Brooks received a respectable 18 percent.

The early polling and constant polling revealed that Roy Moore had a hard-core 30 percent of the electorate.  It was and still is a solid block of voters that are going to vote for Moore come hell or high water.

Those of us that know politics knew that Moore’s 30 percent would become accentuated and would grow to 40 percent with a low voter turnout.  That is exactly what happened.  The final poll and the only one that counts is the count of those that show up to vote.  Older people vote and Moore’s supporters are more ardent, dedicated, and older.  They showed up and voted.  They will again on Tuesday.  Turnout is as critical as it was on August 15.  Therefore, Luther Strange’s path to victory is narrow.

The Roy Moore popularity and hard-core support is a phenomenon and anomaly in this day and time in politics.  It is very similar to George Wallace’s appeal in his hey day.

Although, unlike Wallace, who was a professional politician and demagogue in the classic Southern stereotypical style, Moore is a true believer.  He has put his money where his mouth is.  He has lost his job, not once but twice, for his stands for the Ten Commandments and against gay marriage.  I doubt George Wallace would have given up his job as governor if a federal judge told him to get out of the school house door in the 1960’s.

However, Moore’s support is deeper than just an evangelical base.  He is a true populist in the mold of a George Wallace or even Huey Long. This job of U.S. Senator actually fits him better in voters’ minds than governor.  He could have and probably should have dug up and recycled an old Wallace slogan used by the fighting little judge from Barbour County in his presidential forays, “Send them a message.”

Moore amazingly carried 60 out of 67 counties on August 15.  It was not just rural counties either.  He won Mobile and Montgomery.  Strange carried Imperial Jefferson and Brook’s carried his home bailiwick of Madison.

Luther Strange had all of the money.  The Washington super PAC’s let it be known early that they were going to load him up and treat him as an incumbent.  They were not just whistling Dixie. In the first primary, they spent over $5 million.  Moore spent $400,000.  Folks that is a 15 to 1 advantage. They have outspent Moore 10 to 1 in the runoff.

With the Washington money also comes the Washington gurus – the best pollsters and media experts in America.  They polled Alabama Republican voters early and late and found Donald Trump’s agenda was very popular in the Heart of Dixie.  They gave Luther Strange the pro-Trump script and he stuck to it perfectly.  They hammered the Trump/Strange message repeatedly.  They have stuck to the script in the runoff.  Luther’s 33 percent vote on August 15 puts him within striking distance of Moore in the runoff.

Luther was bolstered by both the Trump endorsement and also the Alabama Farmers Federation endorsement.  This conservative group’s support is vital in a statewide race.

The former State Attorney General did well as expected among upscale urbane voters in Jefferson and Shelby counties.  He also did surprisingly well in some of the more populous counties of North Alabama, especially Tuscaloosa, Talladega, Cullman, DeKalb, Jackson and Walker counties.  Walker County had a large turnout due to a local issue on the ballot.

The pivotal question is where do Brooks’ voters go Tuesday.  My guess is it is a wash at best.  Most stay home. Therefore, the only route for Big Luther to make up the difference was to go negative and they really did.  We will soon see if it works.  Again, turnout is the key.

See you next week.